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8 Reliable Ways to Predict Movement in the Forex Market

The ability to skilfully predict changes in the forex market can be the difference between a trader making profit and losses. To survive and thrive in the forex market, it’s important to grasp the factors that cause changes in the price value of currencies. These eight factors will help you forecast any changes in the forex market, allowing you to gain an edge in the trade.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This is the measure of the prices of consumer products and services, such as food, transportation, automobiles, and healthcare. The measure helps a country keep a leash on prices by indicating when prices are rising (inflation) and when they are falling (deflation).

As a forex trader, you should keep updated with current inflation rates so as to accurately predict market movements. When inflation rates are stable, then you know you can go ahead and trade that currency pair. However, with high inflation rates, trading in that country’s currency will lead to losses.

Trade and Capital Flows

With forex trade being a global industry, the capital or trade flows in and out of a country can increase or decrease its currency value. Before predicting a currency’s performance, check whether its country is heavily dependent on exports, because in the event the exports drop, the currency will fall.

Capital flow is the money investors inject in the country. A currency value is hurt if investors flee from a country, for instance, due to political upheavals, lack of political goodwill, etc. It is thus an important factor when pondering how to predict forex markets.

Economic Growth

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The performance of a country’s economy has an impact on its currency. Generally, a stronger economy creates the environment for a stronger currency. This is because; the higher the economic growth, the more opportunities to invest and conduct business in the country. This increases the demand for the local currency, lifting its value.

Interest Rates

Just like with economic growth, the more the interest rates of a country increase, the more its currency becomes stronger. This is because higher interest rates attract investors to save their money in bonds, stocks and savings accounts, causing an increase in demand for the local currency.

Geopolitics

Any disturbance of the political scene in a country causes a shake-up in the forex market. Since a currency is representative of a country, government politics and global relations will often determine its stability or its fall in value.

Mergers and Acquisitions

This factor is useful when predicting the short-term movements in forex trading. When a foreign country firm purchases or consolidates with a company in a particular country, it causes an economic ripple on the local country, causing a change in currency value. Any savvy forex trader will keep an eye open for this sort of movement and either lean in to capitalize on it or avoid investing, depending on the economic effect the move causes.

Natural Disasters

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Catastrophic natural events on a country, e.g. earthquakes, hurricanes and floods usually impact a country’s currency, and not in a positive way. The aftermath of such events, from national apprehension to damaged infrastructure – which is the backbone of any country’s economy, to loss of life, causes a currency to depreciate.

Wars

Much like natural disasters, war can have a devastating impact on a country’s economy. Apart from the destruction of infrastructure, wars can devalue a country’s currency value by the ripple effect of the massive rebuilding efforts – which cost massive amounts of money. This is because reconstruction efforts require capital obtained from very low-interest rates, diminishing the value of the local currency.

Forex traders should be on top of any such development so as to be able to predict the direction of forex movement in the country. If a widespread war occurs in a country whose currency is part of your currency pair, then you’ll know to hold out until the economy stabilizes.  

Summary

Forex traders have information at their disposal to assist them more than ever before. Taking calculated risks is the key to making maximum profit in the forex industry, and that starts with watching out for events that may rock their currency pair’s exchange rates. This information will enable you to strategize even better; by having an accurate idea of when to enter or exit the market.

A Quick Introduction to Short Selling Currency and Its Use in the Forex Market

There are many strategies used when trading in the financial markets. Traders in the markets often buy shares or assets when they think that their value will go low. When a trader does this, the expectation is that the value of that asset will go high just in time for them to sell. By doing this, therefore, the trader is able to make some money. This is what shorting is all about in the markets. In the currency market, this process is a bit different since it involves two currencies where the short position sees one currency in the pair falling and the other one rising. Let us look at the strategy in detail.

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Short Selling in the Currency Market

As stated in the introduction, short selling in the forex market involves a pair of currency. Take the USD/EUR pair for instance. This pair comprises of base currency (the USD) and the quote currency (EUR). If the quote of the currency is USD/EUR=0.88 and the trader decides to go short, then they will basically be short selling the base currency while going long on the quote currency. In the hypothetical situation here, quote indicates that 1 USD equals 0.88 EUR.

The Premise of Shorting in the Forex Market

The premise of every trade done by a trader is that their move will allow them to make a profit. When a trader is short selling the USD therefore, they are expecting that at a point in time, the USD will be lower in value compared to the EUR. The ideas that inform such a move come from the research done on the market. Short selling in the currency market is pretty straightforward. There are no special requirements that a trader needs to comply with, nor are there special rules on the trade.

Risks Involved in Short Selling

Like in every other market, there are risks involved in going short particularly in the currency market. When a trader decides to go short, they are putting themselves at risk of losing money exponentially. This is because short selling assumes that the price will fall. If the price decides to rise however, there is no upper limit on how much the price of the currency can rise. Long selling does not have such a risk since the price of the currency can only fall to zero and not beyond. Traders thus are exposed to risk when going short and there needs to be a means of limiting the risks.

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How to Limit the Risks?

Fortunately, there are a number of ways through which a trader can limit the risks of short selling. One of the most effective ways of doing this is by using a stop loss. Stop losses are used across the financial markets and they provide a simple mechanism of exiting the trade when there are no profits to be made. The stop-loss tells the broker to exit the trade when a set short value limit is reached. The opposite this is placing a limit order, which exits the trade when the projected profit is met.

Crucial Issues to Note When Short Selling

As previously indicated, the forex market is great for traders who want to short sell. It is a flexible market that welcomes traders of all calibers. The market is nevertheless quite risky when it comes to short selling, especially when compared to other markets. The upper limit of loss is virtually infinite even though the lower limit of profit is 100%. Traders need to be prudent when trading in this market, therefore.

In summary

Short selling is a great way to make money in the forex market. For this strategy to succeed, the forex trader needs to be a good risk manager. The use of tools like stop loss is advised as the market is rather unpredictable. It is advisable to never risk more than 1% of the account. The basic premises of shorting in the market is similar to what is common in other financial markets. With proper strategies on risk elimination, there is a lot to be gained when shorting in the foreign exchange market.

Foreign Currencies: The Key To Investment Success?

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There are lots of different ways you might want to invest your money. Most of them are really well-known and popular with individual investors. For instance, investing in property is currently highly advisable as the real estate market is rarely volatile and can, therefore, bring you some big returns on your initial investments. Other traditional investment methods include stocks and shares, as well as funds and commodities.

Investment markets are extremely varied, and I’m sure that there will be some that you have never heard of before, or things that you didn’t realize you could invest money into. Take foreign currencies, for instance. I’m sure you will have had money changed into a different currency when you have been on holiday, but did you know that some people make money by doing this? It is known as forex, and here are some tips to turn this into a top investment for your cash!

Stick With Your Chosen Strategy

Before you make any investment, you need a strategy that you can follow. Once you have decided on yours, it is critical that you stick with it, no matter what happens. Are you wondering how you can come up with the best forex strategy for you? It’s all about research – once you have researched it in full, you will have a much better understanding of currencies and how you can effectively create a strategy that is built for success.

Research The Best Forex Brokers

Just going to your local bureau de change won’t help you when it comes to investing in foreign currencies. You won’t be able to trade high enough amounts with them. Ideally, you need to go to a specialist trading platform for all of your transactions. They can even help you learn more about forex and will be able to answer any questions that you might have. But, more importantly, they will let you trade the sizeable amounts that can bring some very attractive returns.

Expect Some Small Loses

Trading in foreign currencies is much like trading in any other kind of investment – your investments could rise and fall in value. As long as you are aware that there will be some fluctuation, then you shouldn’t panic too much when you notice some small losses. Hopefully, your investment will be able to jump back from this.

Network With Like-Minded Investors

When it comes to forex, it’s a good idea to find some like-minded investors who you can add to your network. As it’s such an unusual form of investing at the minute, it’s a good idea to find your own support group who you can turn to whenever you need any help and advice.

Review Your Investments Once A Week

Ideally, you should check your investments once a week, preferably at the weekend once the markets have closed. That way, you can be aware if there is anything that you need to attend to. Plus, it helps you figure out which forex investments are potentially losing you money and need to be sold.

Forex isn’t too tricky once you know what to do!